We do not deny that climate change or intensifying climatic risks have an impact on migration decisions for people, especially if their livelihoods are resource dependent. But climate change and risks are seldom the sole causes. A widely accepted framework by the UK Government-funded Foresight Report on Climate Change and Migration establishes that climate change influences other existing and emerging social, economic, environmental, demographic, and political drivers of migration.

The decision to migrate or to stay is then furthermore dependent on personal and household characteristics as well as other contextual factors (e.g. cost of moving, existing networks). The wide range of ways household use migration to deal with environmental stress is exemplified in the “Where the Rain Falls” Project by UNU-EHS.

The multi-country study analysed the wide range of roles migration plays in the context of climate change: Some groups are “trapped,” as they cannot utilize migration as a way to deal with risks; others cope with risks through migration to get along and survive in difficult times; for some migration is strategically to enhance their resilience. In the cases where climatic risks play a role in migration, there is hardly any evidence that these movements include crossing borders or heading to Western countries. Drought affected farmers, for example, mostly migrate temporarily and over short distances within the country.

A study by UNHCR in refugee camps in Ethiopia shows that violence and repression robbed people of the ability to deal with environmental stress and forced them to leave the country.

Emphasising climatic factors, as has been done in the Syrian case above, distracts from the immediate causes of flight and death.

In recent years, a new buzzword, “migration as adaptation,” has entered the discussion on migration and climate change. This idea puts a positive outlook on migration by considering the potential positive impacts of financial remittances as well as ideas and technologies facilitated though migration. The understanding of the mechanisms and circumstances for a positive impact of migration on climate change is limited and the empirical evidence is sparse. Hopefully, the gap will be closed by the activities of several research groups, including TransRe and IOM’s MECLEP – which are currently tackling the issue.